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2022-10-15
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Zhao Wei: production and operation of China's paper industry in 2018

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core tips: [China Packaging News] this article is excerpted from the report made by Mr. Zhao Wei, chairman of China Paper Association, on the "2018 China Pulp and paper technology forum and the Ninth China paper pulp and paper technology forum"

[China Packaging News] This article is excerpted from the report made by Mr. Zhao Wei, chairman of China Paper Association, on "2018 China pulp and paper technology forum and the 9th China paper industry pulp and paper technology forum"

production completion from January to September 2018

according to the statistical data of the express report of the National Bureau of statistics, as of the end of September 2018, the number of pulp, paper and paper products enterprises was 6672, an increase of 36 over the same period last year. Among them, there are 43 pulp manufacturing enterprises, with a decrease of 3 enterprises, 2646 paper manufacturing enterprises, with a decrease of 75 enterprises, and 3983 paper products manufacturing enterprises, with an increase of 114 enterprises

the production volume counted by the National Bureau of statistics from January to September this year and the data compared with the same period last year:

paper and paperboard 88.66 million tons, a decrease of 5.93 million tons or 7.3% compared with the same period last year

10.53 million tons of pulp, a decrease of 2.25 million tons or 16% compared with the same period last year

42.36 million tons of paper products, a decrease of 12.19 million tons or 22.3% over the same period last year; Among them, the production of cartons was 21.21 million tons, a decrease of 7.49 million tons or 26.1% over the same period last year

completion of major economic indicators

according to the statistical data of the National Bureau of statistics, the completion of major economic indicators of pulp and paper and paper products enterprises above Designated Size from January to September 2018 and the comparison with last year's data are as follows

(1) main business income

the whole industry completed 1057.8 billion, a decrease of 118.9 billion or 10.1% over the same period last year. Among them:

the pulp manufacturing industry completed 12.3 billion, an increase of 2.3 billion or 23.6% over the same period last year

the paper industry completed 635.3 billion, a decrease of 78.4 billion or 11.0% over the same period last year

the paper products manufacturing industry completed 410.2 billion, a decrease of 42.8 billion or 9.5% over the same period last year

(2) total profit

the whole industry completed 59.1 billion, a decrease of 14.8 billion or 20.0% over the same period last year. Among them:

the pulp manufacturing industry completed 1.1 billion, an increase of 800million or 266.7% over the same period last year

the paper industry completed 37 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.8 billion yuan or 22.6% over the same period last year

the paper products manufacturing industry completed 20.9 billion, a decrease of 4.9 billion or 19.0% over the same period last year

(3) finished goods inventory

58.8 billion in the industry, an increase of 13.3 billion or 29.2% over the same period last year. Among them:

the pulp manufacturing industry was 640 million, an increase of 50 million or 7.3% over the same period last year

the paper industry was 41.3 billion, an increase of 12 billion or 41.0% over the same period last year

the paper products manufacturing industry was 16.8 billion, an increase of 1.2 billion or 7.7% over the same period last year

based on the analysis of the statistical express data of this year and last year, the completion of the overall economic indicators of the whole industry in the first nine months of this year is not as good as that of last year

import of commercial pulp and waste paper and production of primary pulp

1. Analysis of import of commercial pulp

from January to August 2018, China imported 16.47 million tons of various types of commercial pulp, an increase of 820000 tons over the same period of the previous year, an increase of 5.2% year-on-year. Among them, 5.26 million tons of bleached coniferous pulp increased by only 10000 tons, and 8.36 million tons of bleached broad-leaved pulp increased by 700000 tons. The export of pulp is very small. According to the import data of commercial pulp in the past eight months, although all varieties have increased, the total increase is mainly bleached broad-leaved pulp, and the increase of bleached coniferous pulp is not much

in September, the import of various types of commercial pulp was 2.2 million tons in a single month, an increase of 13.9%, and the monthly cumulative import was 18.67 million tons, an increase of 5.9%

another new situation this year is that after the import of waste paper was blocked, the import of waste paper pulp increased. It is understood that as of September, 270000 tons of waste paper pulp had been imported

according to the import volume and the market supply of commercial pulp in the first eight months of this year and in combination with the domestic production of pulp, paper and paperboard, we predict that the total import volume of commercial pulp this year will be about 25million tons (including about 2.8 million tons of dissolved pulp), and the actual consumption of imported commercial pulp for paper making will increase by about 5.5% year-on-year; The export volume is expected to be less than 50000 tons, down by half from the previous year

2. Waste paper import and waste pulp production

from January to September this year, a total of 11.53 million tons of all kinds of waste paper were imported, a decrease of 10.16 million tons or 46.8% over the same period last year

in addition, 63.02 million tons of waste paper pulp were produced in China last year, and the total consumption of waste paper was about 78 million tons. Among them, 25.72 million tons of waste paper are imported, and about 52 million tons of all kinds of waste paper are recycled in China

this year, due to the environmental protection license for waste paper import and the import inspection standards, the import volume of waste paper has decreased sharply, and the raw materials have become tighter, which has led to the continuous high price of domestic recycled waste paper. According to what we have learned so far, with the gradual smooth supply of goods and customs inspection, the import volume of waste paper may increase in the next few months of 2018, but limited by quality standards, the increase is difficult to increase

based on this, we expect to import about 15.5 million tons of waste paper this year, about 10million tons less than last year, and domestic recycled waste paper is about 51.5 million tons, about 800000 tons less than last year. The total production of waste pulp was about 55 million tons, a decrease of about 8 million tons or 12.7% over the previous year

3. Production and consumption of primary pulp

based on the above analysis of domestic production of primary pulp and the import of commercial pulp and waste paper, combined with the production and consumption of domestic paper and paperboard and the recycling of domestic waste paper, we predict that the annual production of domestic primary pulp this year is about 16million tons, a decrease of about 3% over last year. Plus the import and export volume, it is estimated that the annual apparent consumption of primary pulp for papermaking is about 38million tons, A year-on-year decrease of about 1%

2018 annual production and consumption forecast

according to the above data and analysis, we predict that the domestic pulp and paper production and consumption in 2018 is:

1. The total production of paper and paperboard is about 103 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of about 7.5%

2. The apparent consumption of paper and paperboard was about 103.8 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of about 4.7%

3. The total production of paper pulp is about 71 million tons, with a decrease of about 11.0% compared with the authenticity of the fixture description

4. The consumption of paper pulp was about 93 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of about 7.5%

the overall trend of domestic paper industry production and market in 2018

the overall domestic economic situation this year is stable and good, but many changes have taken place in the external environment, such as Sino US trade issues, exchange rate changes and increased environmental protection management, which have slowed down China's economic development and increased downward pressure. The paper industry is not only a raw material industry, but also a supporting industry for many industries, The occurrence of the above problems is bound to affect our paper industry

based on these changes and in combination with the analysis of the production and market trend of the paper industry this year, we believe that the production and market of the domestic paper industry in 2018 will have the following trend:

1. The overall production and operation of the paper industry will remain basically stable, but with the slowdown of economic development and the decline of demand, the total production of paper and paperboard will be reduced throughout the year, and the production and sales will basically remain balanced

2. The main economic indicators such as the annual main business income and profit of the paper industry will remain positive, but the growth rate will decline compared with the previous year. Affected by market demand, raw material costs and other factors, the performance of enterprises will be differentiated, and the number of difficult enterprises will increase

3. As the import of waste paper implements strict quality inspection standards, the supply quantity that can meet the requirements will be reduced, which will reduce the import volume of waste paper this year

4. Due to the restriction of domestic raw pulp production and the total amount of domestic recycled waste paper, as well as the influence of the import policy of waste paper raw materials, in order to meet the market demand for the total amount of paper and paperboard, the demand of paper production enterprises for imported commodity pulp will increase

5. Due to factors such as production costs, market prices and commercial interests, most paper and paperboard products in the domestic market will increase imports and decrease exports

the overall situation of domestic paper industry production and market next year

judgment on the domestic paper industry situation next year, we believe that:

1. The country will continue to adhere to the general tone of seeking progress in stability, implement active fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy, and keep the economy running within a reasonable range. Under this background, the paper industry, as a supporting industry, will still be driven by production and consumption, It is expected that the overall operation of the paper industry will continue to be stable, and the market demand may be low before high

2. Affected by the Sino US trade war, the gradual tightening of waste paper import policy and the change of exchange rate, it will bring uncertain factors to the stable development of the production and consumption of paper products

3. The need and pressure of ecological civilization construction have strengthened environmental protection management. At present, many provinces are formulating a "negative list" of industrial transfer and strengthening the adjustment of industrial structure. This change will bring changes to the existing enterprise, product, regional and other structures and market patterns of the paper industry. Next, I can introduce some common problems that will affect the production and operation of some paper enterprises

4. Judging from the current situation, the import policy of waste paper will be gradually tightened and the quantity will be gradually reduced, resulting in an increase in the demand for domestic recycled waste paper. However, restricted by the total amount of domestic recyclable waste paper, the amount of recycled waste paper will be tightened, and the demand for commercial pulp will also be increased

5. With the supply side structural reform and the promotion of the the Belt and Road construction, especially the implementation of the waste paper raw material import policy, some paper enterprises will increase their willingness to invest and set up factories abroad, especially for pulp mills with waste paper as raw material. It is necessary to remind manufacturers who are willing to invest that they should do a good job in the early research work, especially pay attention to the policy changes of the other party

6. With the approval of the State Council, bleached softwood pulp futures for paper products will soon be listed on the Shanghai Futures Exchange. This measure not only helps enterprises find prices and predict costs, but also adds a hedging financing channel to enterprises. However, due to the increase of social participation, it will also bring fluctuations and changes to the commodity pulp market and affect the spot market of commodity pulp in disguise. Therefore, this futures product should be paid special attention to

looking at the production and operation of the paper industry this year, under the situation of "change in stability" and "slow in stability" of the macro-economy, the paper industry has also encountered difficulties such as reduced market demand, rising raw material costs and declining profits. Coupled with changes in the external environment, such as Sino US trade issues, exchange rate changes and stricter environmental protection management, the overall production and operation problems of the paper industry this year have increased and difficulties have increased, In particular, the economic benefits of cement-based polyurethane insulation materials in the market are declining

looking forward to the situation of the paper industry next year, although there are still many uncertain factors in the external environment, judging from the recent policies issued by the central government to support private economy and other policies to boost economic development, China's economy will continue to operate within a reasonable range. In this context, combined with the positioning and role of the paper industry, it will still bring development space to the paper industry. As long as we adhere to the direction of "green paper industry" and design three curvature shapes, we can predict that next year will be better as long as we strengthen innovation capacity, increase new kinetic energy, and effectively control new production capacity through supply side structural reform

the above are domestic paper industry

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